Chris Bowers in his OpenLeft diary reports that Obama has won at least 23 of the 36 uncommitted slots in Michigan.
Current totals:
47 Clinton
27 Obama
1 Controlled by United Autoworkers
9 Unconfirmed
Details on the jump.
In his OpenLeft Diary, Chris Bowers reports:
Michiganders for Obama currently claims 15 delegate victories, but their list is clearly incomplete. I have found news reports confirming that Obama supporters won both uncommitted spots in the 3rd, 7th, and 8th, districts, along with two of the three in the 9th, adding at least another six to Obama's total. Montague also expressed confidence that Obama supporters won both uncommitted slots in the 2nd district, which would increase Obama's total to at least 23 or the 36, although I can't find a confirming news report at this time.
UAW supporters, but not necessarily Clinton supporters, appear to have won at least four of the uncommitted slots, snagging at least one in each of the 9th, 12th, 13th and 14th districts. The UAW in Michigan has not endorsed a candidate, so this move harkens back to old-school, pres-1972 conventions. Back then, unions and local party bosses locked down blocks of delegates, thus giving them tremendous leverage at the convention. The UAW appears to have pulled exactly that off in Michigan, to the tune of at least four delegates, and possibly more. Maybe we should start a "UAW" column on delegate counts, right next to the Edwards totals. If Obama stumbles in upcoming states, the nomination might go through Edwards and / or the UAW.
With the following update:
Update: Both 2nd district uncommitteds confirmed for Obama. Still looking for more info in the 12th, 13th and 14th districts. The 24 uncommitteds outside of those districts are confirmed as 23-1 in favor of Obama, with the remaining delegate going to the UAW in the 9th CD by a single vote.
Now, I don't believe for a moment that the Credentials Committee is going to vote to seat the delegates from Michigan 47-23, 47-36, or any variation thereof, unless one candidate has already cinched the nomination. It just violates any reasonable person's sense of fairness.
However, this is important as Michigan now represents a much lower potential advantage for Clinton. In the leadup between June 3 and the Convention, the argument for Clinton to take this to the Credentials Committee will be moot, if by doing so, she could not add enough pledged delegates to gain an advantage.
Presently, Obama leads pledged delegates by 160-170 (depending on who's counting). Presuming that Clinton counts Florida and Michigan, Obama's advantage might drop by, at most, 60. In the remaining contests, it's virtually impossible for her to gain 100+ pledged delegates. As recently pointed out, a 20% win (that's 60-40) in Pennsylvania would net her only 9 delegates. Obviously, after NC and IN, the other contests are much smaller, meaning that there just aren't many places for her to gain ground.
Secondly, even if the Michigan delegation were to be seated "as is", the popular vote would not be added to Clinton's column (this just wouldn't make sense -- what would you add to the Obama column?). I don't believe in using the popular vote as a metric anyhow, and there are inherrent structural problems to that argument, the most significant being that caucus states are completely unrepresented in such a scenario -- and there's a lot of caucus states.
So, barring a Clinton blowout in IN/PA, there is virtually no way that Obama will end June 3 without winning the most states, most delegates, and popular vote -- with our without Michigan and Florida.
UPDATED: Chris Bowers further reports:
Obama supporters won both uncommitted slots in the 11th, not just one. Also, people who claim to be Obama supporters won all three slots in the 12th. So, that makes the count 27-1, with results from the 13th and 14th CDs still unknown. However, these are not exactly the most solid Obama delegates around, as some of them were won by old Edwards supporters, and even some people who switched from Clinton a couple months ago.
In other words, it appears that Obama has ostensibly won just about all of the 36 uncommitted delegates, perhaps only missing one delegate in the 9th because of divisions among Obama supporting groups. However, a dozen or so of the Obama delegates are weak supporters, and might actually be truly uncommitted or even backing Clinton. I'll consider it a 35-1 Obama victory for now, but that number is tentative pending future information. In truth, mistrust of some of the more machine or union oriented Obama supporters who won the uncommitted slots is probably just hard-core Obama grassroots paranoia. If someone publicly says they are for Obama, I see no reason not to trust them until they publicly declare something has changed.